Will the 2012 DA14 Asteroid Hit Earth in 11 months?
Filed under
News March 6, 2012
March 5, 2012
In what seems like a scene right out of a bad Hollywood movie, experts from around the world are debating how they can change the trajectory of an asteroid that may hit earth in 11 months. The harebrained schemes include everything from painting the asteroid to nuking it into oblivion.
The Asteroid, officially known in the scientific community as asteroid 2012 DA14, was discovered by a Spanish astronomer earlier this year. The asteroid is expected to skim by the earth next February (2013). How likely it is that the asteroid could hit the earth is debatable, but it defiantly has some in the scientific community concerned.
Russia Today reported that NASA expert Dr. David Dunham told students at Moscow’s University of Electronics and Mathematics (MIEM).
There is a possibility the asteroid will collide with Earth, but further calculation is required to estimate the potential threat and work out how to avert possible disaster. and Mathematics (MIEM).
NBC is reporting that although most experts say it will miss us, “there is nothing wrong with making sure your affairs are in order.”
The problem with all of these calculations is, there is almost no room for error. The slightest deviation in the asteroids trajectory could mean a direct hit or it could mean it deviating father off into space. And as for the experts harebrained schemes, well since NASA discontinued the space program, experts say there is not enough time to build a ship that could intercept the asteroid. So unless Bruce Willis
SHOULD YOU WORRY?
NASA Say’s NO…..
NASA’s official statement from their Impact Risk report says that the odds of the asteroid actually hitting our planet are very low. But they do admit that the Asteroid will pass closer to earth than any other asteroid of its size since they began tracking them. In fact it is expected to pass closer than some of our geostationary satellites.
Discovery’s Bad Astronomy says:
Asteroid 2012 DA14 is almost certainly not going to hit the Earth next February. And by “almost certainly”, I mean it: the odds of an impact are so low they are essentially zero. This does not rule out an impact at some future date, but for now we’re safe.
I think the most important part of this story is the fact that no one really has a plan of action when it comes to stopping this type of threat. While Asteroid 2012 DA14 is likely to skim past the earth without causing any trouble, NASA and those in the scientific community have failed to come up with a real strategy for dealing with future threats. In fact, they may not even be able to reliably track what threats are out there.
Despite the fact that this asteroid has crossed paths with us in the past, it was a Spanish astronomer who actually discovered the threat not NASA. With all the fancy equipment that NASA is supposed to possess, they failed to see this one coming.
The Eros Asteroid is another near earth asteroid whose orbit brings it close to earth around January-February each year. What are the odds of the asteroids paths coming close at any time in 2013? I wonder if anyone has researched this.
Why worry? The World as We Know It will cease to exist December 21st of this year…
Scary doesn’t begin to describe what is said at the end of that video. Everyone is trying to downplay this and then he goes and tells people to get their affairs in order? What kind of crap is that?
And how do these bastards not have a plan in place? You ou would think with all the tax dollars they steal from us someone here in america would have detected this thing. What a bunch of crap scientists. Why should I believe any of them when they say it won’t hit when you consider that not a single one of them were able to detect it to begin with.
I agree with you guys that it will probably not hit but it sure is scary to know they had no clue this was coming. Kinda makes you wonder how accurate their calculations really are.
The calculations are easy to make as soon as the object was seen and enough data was collected. The object will be watched continuously until it’s past us to make sure that nothing new has changed it’s trajectory.
The fact that it wasn’t seen isn’t at all surprising. The sky is very very big and NASA’s budget is pathetically small. Amateurs in their backyards still make new discoveries on a regular basis simply because there is that much sky to be watched.
Don’t you just love that term “Scientific Community”.
The people that I consider the real “scientific community” never had a voice in any of this.
It’s like doctors, we all just take what they say verbatim.
Personally I’ll be living my life exactly as I would’ve if they hadn’t announced this (probably bogus) event.
Take everything the news tells you with a grain of salt and a shot of penicillin.
There is no way for “certain” that you could predict whether or not an NEO’s path is going to intersect our planet or not. There are just too many variables out there in space that we do not have the technology (maybe a better word would be equipment) to account for. Even if we have the NEO’s orbital path figured and calculated one broadside by a CME and it could perturb the orbit, slow it down, speed it up, even the difference of 5 minutes over the course of it’s entire orbit could mean the difference between it colliding with us or not.
I think you bring up a great point. While Nasa might have a good idea of where they think this asteroid will be nobody including Nasa can say it will hit or it won’t hit. The trajectory of these things and the calculations will be updated another 1000 times between now and 11 months from now.
I think the point that OGS makes at the end of the article is important to remember. Nasa didn’t even know this was coming so I would take anything they say with a grain of salt. But I also would take the NBC video with the same skepticism since like I said no one knows yet.
I give you all this info, do/interpret it as you wish. I work in the medical field, and as of the beginning of this year, we have noticed that there is a serious shortage on many medications here in America. That is simply NOT supposed to happen here. It started with a relaxant (valium), then Ativan (also a relaxant), many pain killers-morphine etc., now the list includes some specific IV anti reflux medication that is also used for esophageal bleeding, and several antibiotics. Finally, the worst is we are down to about a 5 day supply of some chemo-therapeutic drugs. Two possibilities where raised by MD’s and RN’s. 1: The current “stock on time” method is flawed, and now everyone’s just trying to catch up. 2: Scary as it may be, the Government is hoarding these drugs/medications for some unknown reason. If #2 was the case, that would be amusing as a Asteroid strike would pretty much eliminate human life.
thats why the government has built underground bunkers.trust that they have a contingency plan,just for them and who they choose, not a contingency plan for the rest of us though.
sorry folks but I’ve got to say it. N.A.S.A = never a straight answer.
It isn’t in this article, but it was in others… This thing is 150ft wide. Big freaking deal! According to NASA an object has to be 25 meters to even survive entry. So doing some basic math, this thing would shrink down to about 68ft or so.
The odds are nearly zero of it hitting earth. If it did, earth is mostly water. 68ft rock smacking down in the middle of the ocean would cause zero damage. If it hit in the middle of a city it’d cause some damage, but nothing like end of the world dooms day crap.
Get real. This is media selling more fear.
Harry have you ever heard of the Tunguska event? Here is a little bit of science for you. A stony/metallic meteoroid of about 30 ft in diameter can produce an explosion of around 20 kilotons (think Nagasaki). If a 68ft rock did in fact make it thru our atmosphere it would cause a MAJOR catostrophy, not a global one but most certainly a regional one, if it hit the ocean try to imagine how big a tsunami can get and you would probably be pretty close.
This asteroid is not a credible threat. Spaceweather.com has a link to folks who are tracking these asteroids and calculating impact risk. It’s a good site that is not associated with NASA. There are other asteroids with a higher impact threat than this one. (go to the bottom of the spaceweather.com site and click on PHA link).
Just to clear some things up, the meteor crater in Arizona was created by an asteroid estimated to be 80 feet (less than 30 meters) in diameter. 2012 DA14 is estimated to be 44 meters in diameter, so yes it is a big deal if it hits. The crater in Arizona is approximately a mile in diameter. Lets just say you would not want to be anywhere near an impact of this magnitude. Do your reasearch and be prepared, they will not be deflecting or destroying any asteroids in our lifetime.
And if it WAS going to hit do you think they would give people a year’s notice? LOLOLOL! Thats seriously funny. Use your head for more than a hat rack.
Asteroid 2011 AG5 is more of a threat (1 in 500). they will know more in 2023 when it may or may not hit the keyhole. The highest possible impact is in 2040. It is 140 meters in diameter and has an impact energy of approximately 102 Megatons.
The 2012 DA14 asteroid has an impact energy of around 2.3 Megatons. Still enough to ruin your day, but its probablility of impact is only 1 in 71,000.