When it comes to emergency preparedness, there is no such thing as a one-size-fits-all survival plan. It doesn’t exist. And if anyone ever tries to sell you on an easy, one-size-fits-all preparedness method, they’re either lying to you, or they don’t have the first clue what it actually takes to survive a real-life crisis.
Listen, I could go on and on listing ten thousand different threats a person could face during their lifetime, handing you an easy-to-digest ten-point plan for survival. But the truth is most of those ten-point plans suck. They’re not realistic. They don’t take into account your unique needs, your location, or your situation. A guy prepping in coastal Florida and a guy prepping in rural Montana are not fighting the same war, and a generic checklist pretends they are.
Like it or not, YOU are going to have to put in a little work.
What Is a Preparedness Threat Assessment?
It’s the only way to actually be prepared. Think about it: how many people living in Middle America really need to become experts in hurricane prep? They don’t. The threats they face aren’t the same threats facing someone in Tornado Alley, and the threats facing someone in Tornado Alley aren’t the same as the threats facing someone three blocks from a chemical plant in an industrial corridor.
To truly be prepared for anything, you need to know exactly what threats you’re facing, then analyze how those threats will affect you, your family, and your property — both during the event and in the chaotic days that follow. A threat assessment lets you dig down and identify the dangers that are actually relevant to your life, instead of burning time, money, and mental energy prepping for scenarios that have almost zero chance of touching you.
Doing this work properly will improve your ability to handle threats, manage high-stress situations without losing your head, and protect the people you love from harm. That’s the entire point. Not buying gear for the sake of owning gear — building a plan that holds up when it matters.
There are three primary objectives when performing a threat assessment:
- Identify
- Assess
- Manage
So pull out a notebook — a real one, not a notes app you’ll lose when your phone dies — and let’s get started.
IDENTIFY the Threats
The first step in analyzing your overall preparedness level is to identify the most likely threats that you will face. Not the scariest. Not the ones that make the best YouTube thumbnails. The likely ones.
What are the most likely threats that you will face? Who or what are they, and where are you vulnerable?
- Natural disasters — What are the most likely disasters based on your geographical location? Hurricanes, floods, earthquakes, wildfires, ice storms. Pull your county’s actual disaster history before you guess.
- SHTF scenarios — What do you believe poses the greatest threat to your livelihood? Economic collapse, political instability, terrorist attacks, chemical/biological/radiological/nuclear threats, civil unrest and riots, war.
- Personal threats — Economic problems, job loss, home invasions, crushing debt. These don’t make headlines, but they wreck more families per year than every natural disaster combined.
- Security — What are the biggest security risks in your specific area? Gangs, organized crime, the general breakdown that can hit urban areas when systems get stressed.
- Immediate local dangers — Is there anything specific about your neighborhood that should worry you? Terrorist targets nearby, chemical or industrial plants, criminal activity, bad escape routes out of your area during a disaster. Drive your own evacuation route in daylight. Most people never have.
Don’t Skip the Boring Threats
Here’s where most people screw up their own threat assessment: they go straight for the sexy stuff. EMPs. Grid-down collapse. Civil war. Meanwhile the thing actually statistically likely to wreck their year — a job loss, a burst pipe, a bad storm that knocks out power for four days — never makes the list because it’s not exciting enough to think about.
A proper assessment forces you to write down the boring stuff too. Ask yourself directly:
- If you lost your job today, how long could you go without a paycheck?
- How much food do you actually have on hand right now, and how many days will it really last your household?
- What single point of failure — one missing skill, one un-serviced vehicle, one unstocked shelf — would hurt you the most if it failed this week?
If those questions made you uncomfortable, good. That discomfort is the assessment working.
ASSESS the Threats
Once you’ve got your list, the next step is figuring out how each of those dangers actually plays out for you, and what specifically needs protecting.
- How will each threat on your list affect you, your family, your property, and your existing survival plans?
- How does each scenario impact your overall preparedness efforts — does prepping for one threat help or hurt your readiness for another?
- Are there gaps in your plans, your home security, or your overall preparedness that need to be addressed right now, not eventually?
- What concrete steps do you need to take to protect yourself, your family, and your property from each specific threat?
This is also where you separate threats by timeline. Some things — a wildfire, a riot, a home invasion — happen fast and demand an immediate, rehearsed response. Others — economic decline, contamination of a regional water supply, a slow job market collapse — unfold over weeks or months and give you room to adjust if you’re paying attention. Treating a slow-burn threat like a fast one (or vice versa) is how people either panic unnecessarily or get caught flat-footed.
MANAGE the Threats
The final step is taking real, concrete protective action that prevents or minimizes your exposure to the threats you just identified and assessed. This is where the notebook stops being a journal and starts being a plan.
- What specific actions can you take right now to minimize your risk?
- Develop actual emergency response plans and threat-reduction strategies for each situation on your list — not vague intentions, written steps.
- Are you actually prepared to bug out if the situation calls for it? Could you execute that plan in the next 15 minutes if you had to? If you’re still working out the logistics, our evacuation planning resource hub is a good place to fill the gaps.
- Intelligence. People who are genuinely prepared pull information from multiple sources, not one app or one news feed.
- Before a crisis hits: survival websites, books, radio, building out an offline knowledge library you can access with zero internet.
- After a crisis hits: personal networks, ham and shortwave radio, and whatever local intel you can gather on foot.
A Threat Assessment Isn’t a One-Time Worksheet
Here’s the part people get wrong constantly: they do this exercise once, file it away, and never touch it again. Your threat assessment needs to move when your life moves. New job, new city, new kid, new neighbor who just got evicted and is clearly furious about it — all of it changes your risk profile. Revisit this at least once a year, and immediately after any major life change. A threat assessment built for the apartment you lived in five years ago isn’t protecting the house you live in now.
The goal was never to scare you into buying a bunker. It’s to make sure that when something does go sideways, you’re not improvising for the first time in the middle of the emergency. You already did the thinking. Now you just execute.
I know not with what weapons World War III will be fought, but World War IV will be fought with sticks and stones.
Albert Einstein
The above comments are worthy of note. Though earthquakes are not a major issue in my area, hurricanes are as well as items 2 thru 6. Preparing for the coming gun ban is, of course, a major issue. Weapon and ammunition are starting to be put on back order, meaning it may take months or never before the items come in. I speak from experience. By the way , another word for the threat assessment is a vulnerability study or understanding where a person and his/her family are most vulnerable to damage. Wanted to share another item of note that is starting to come to the front: the incident in Florida is starting to escalate. I saw that the incident made front cover of People magazine, meaning alot of people are going to be influenced by what happened. Another item of note is I noticed this afternoon in a laundermat a poster advising people of a vigil service for the boy. The boy is pictured with Christ placing a cape around his neck with the caption “he now has a new hoodie.” In short, it think this could possibly lead to the rioting similar to that of 1968, In Shakespeare’s “Julius Caesar” swaying a mob by providing only the information the speaker wants them to know in order to follow his line of thinking is presented. I think that’s what is happening now ;one reason why I think we could see some rioting soon.
Two words- Gun Nuts!
But then I have something for them when they come- Bad Boys!
Mostly I plan on just lying low, well off the beaten track, waiting for all of the crazies to kill each other off or starve- should not take much longer than a year or 18 months.
Good Advice!
Sounds like good advice if you’re single. Heading for the hills and building a cabin deep in national forest land. Just watch out for illegals growing weed.
Your only crazy to the sheeple. Keep doing what your doing. I think you are spot on.
Jesus Knows all of These Things to Come.. if we do not follow his Path to Love, Welfare For All, Social Justice and a Family of Decency ! Repent Repent ! The Time is Near !
Common error. Jesus did not say the time is near. Jesus said the time is HERE.
Jesus said..”You will not know the time nor the day, I will come like a theif in the night!”
We still clearly need to be prepared because this administration has nothing to give, and only takes…unless going on The View” is considered a press conference. I want my husband to clear out his 401K and invest in Gold,and things that have multiple purposes like the ability to make biodiesel, water and alcohol.
Jesus never taught social justice? Where the heck in the Bible Jesus said that? (The rich man does not count)
No, no, no Jesus didn’t say anything like that, he said, “I will come if you pass me a beer.”
Noah was ther first survivalist,God didn’t tell him you sit over there and eat your cheese and drink your wine and watch what I do.He said build an ark and it took many………years too complete.and when/if Noah fell out from being so slappin wore out then I believe God steped in and helped.
Any predictions on what will be banned first? Lots to purchase, little to purchase it with.
the democrats will ban firearms, leaving us more vulunerable. and most likely the fucked up obama adminstration will make basic prepping a felony
Certain parts of basic prepping is already illegal.
Look at the number of places where you can’t garden in your front yard.
The administration is already looking at people with more than a week of food as “hoarders”.
right on, clinton passed that fema could come in your home and seize any unneeded food/ supplies. socialist government says we only need 3 day supply
People in Southern Calif are being encouraged to register with the gov’t that they have emergency supplies. This is to provide them with guidance on how much to store, what kind of stuff and how to store it. The real reason is so FEMA can come get everything for redistribution.
They won’t ban guns they will just buy all the ammo ,guess we can use the guns as clubs! No ammo no gun threat .besides if you think a few thousand rounds of Ammo is going to protect you from a tank you better think again.
personally i believe in a lethal situation anything can be used as a weapon, my lamp next me, break it apart and stab in the eye….not quite as effective as a gun but at least you wont kill someone whos just trying to protect or feed their own family. I personally would rather have tasers and knives, i dont want someone elses death to be on my conscious when they are just trying to survive too.
I’m preparing for the solar flare that going to takes us back to the stone ages and that when are goverment is going down and people are going to panic and start killing each other for food and water..that what im prepareing for…god wont get us is us the people that will kill each other for thing that we could of prepared ahead of time ..
what i’m preparing for the solar flare that going to takes us back to the stone ages and that when are goverment is going down and people are going to panic and start killing each other for food and water..that what im prepareing for…god wont get us is us the people that will kill each other for thing that we could of prepared ahead of time ..
i believe you cuz with gas going up and food going up and there is no form of way for us to get better and than guns being banned i think that will add up with stressng more people and they going to go against the goverment and that going to cast a war…that will nhit us hard the people..
I was in the Navy stuck in the dry dock in Charleston when Hugo hit. The ship did fairly well after banging out about 2million dollars of concrete. Town was totally locked up. Bag ice was $15+ if you could find it. Everyone had giant neighborhood BBQ’s because all the frigs and freezers were out long term. Not a chainsaw or generator to be found for hundreds of miles. Couple of surfer idiots died trying to ride the storm waves otherwise, everyone lived through the storm itself. Afterward, that’s another story. All kinds of idiots killing or getting killed because they knew nothing about how to operate chainsaws and generators. I don’t remember the exact body count but it could have been avoided with common sense and taking the time to learn how to use the equipment. Second biggest problem were the brown recluse spider invading yards and homes. Area bitten has a ring of flesh that keeps rotting away until cored out. Nasty little buggers. It wasn’t uncommon for people to get gauged and pay thousands of dollars to the vultures that swooped in from the north to handle tree removal. Lots of those people had never used a chainsaw either. It was complete chaos. Looting was only prevented by guarding your home armed. I was lucky and able to return to my ship for shelter, food and air conditioning. It was hot as hell after that hurricane.
there are only 3 things you need to survive food,water,shelter,if you think your going to the local lake to fish,there will be over 100 there already,its a fact people will migrate all over to look for food and water,yes there will be some nuts running about,common since is always your best weapon, grow a garden a 100 people will take from it and word will spread fast,if you stock pile food weapons dont let anybody know,or you will become the local store for a free for all,keep a low profile,
Prepping is s good thing, but having aholdout area is number 1
Bren is right. Forget ’bout it. Take care of yourself and anyone else who chip’d in for the supplies and is of like mindiness. Anyone else could not be trusted under any circumstances unless you know them personally and are willing to turn you back on them while u grab some water and food for a meal and don’t think they gut u out.
You folk will be surprise how fast people will turn on you when they are hungry thristy and scared. They will gut you out like a pig and leave you to bleed out on the floor while they take your stuff. All I can say is be careful of anyone after the SHTF if they are not part of your team.
Good way to get killed bro. You will always be found and sooner or later more people with more guns will find and take what they want. Best to evade and survive and find a large group. Humans only last in groups. large groups. Small groups are taken out by larger groups. Or join other small groups to become large.
I reckon the biggest threat i’m facing is the pending economic collapse . I’m in a middle level corporate job, which is great now, but I think i’m lacking in the basic “trade” skills. Improving software is a useless skill if there are no computers…. I think its time I learnt how to build stuff.
Cheers,
Justin.
An NBC attack may well occur in this nation. That has been fact for decades now.
A natural attack such as a solar EMP or natural plague may also occur.
Food riots could very easily occur.
The greatest threat to our republic is the twin curse of ignorance and apathy. As long as our populace is more interested in Monday night football, the fate of the local team, and who is dancing with the stars, the bastards of totalitarianism will thrive.
Wake up, start preparing, read the Constitution, and hope that mankind regrows a conscience.
Good luck and God’s speed to you all.
Gary
Believe it once the magitude of the problem hits the people then stores will be open for cash sells only till empty,gas will sell for cash only (at a very high price)Those who didn’t and don’t have wil be planning againest those who have and did.oh one more thing since our national guard is mostly gone expect to see russian and other military troops come out to calm the masses,did i mention fema camps.
I agree. During the Great Depression, people knew how to grow gardens, raise livestock, can and dehydrate food. Most of the younger generation do not even know how to cut up a chicken! Keep cash in small bills and coins. If all you have are $20 bills, you will find that people can’t change them – you’ll be paying $20 for half a loaf of bread! My husband learned to brew beer and grow tobacco, because people under stress will want a drink and a smoke. People in the cities will die and it won’t be pretty.
I think the economic collapse is going to come first…you see “we Buy Gold” places now more than ever. The government is going to try and get their hands on all the gold so we the people have nothing to bargain or trade with when the American dollar is worthless.
FDR made ownership of gold bullion by citizens illegal. What was done before can be done again. Buy jewelry. The wealthy will never allow ownership of jewelry to be outlawed.
In worst case scenario: world collapse.
Stock up on goodies -like scotch, whisky, red wine, tobacco, shoes, boots and other thins that can be bartered with in tough times.
The first year will be messy – power issues, lawlessness, gangs and the like, then the diseases will run rampant, food, water, fuel shortages and possible canabalism as people spiral down.
Then after year two, things will shift – people will once again regroup and work together. That’s a long two years though. Better have seeds to.
You guys are from America, it is a hell of a lot easier for you guys to prep, here in the U.K it is much harder, if I got caught with half of this stuff the no lawyer would be able to defend me. The best thing I have is my Military Training, and no government force or civilian can take this from me!
Never Give up Lads, Never Surrender!
I think their are a number of things coming. Either the sun or a terrorist will take out our electric grid. Then there is the possibility of total economic collapse before that happens. Either way, hungry, desperate people are going to want your stuff. I live in the country on an easily defended hill. I have stocked up on all the essentials…even have bows for when the ammo runs out. I don’t think there will be much trading for a while…not until those that are unprepared have died off or killed each other.
First: Pogo said it best (The Pogo Papers,Copyright 1952-1953):
We have met the enemy…and he is us.
If you don’t understand that, go back to chapter 1.
The only thing I would add to this section is to know what you don’t have or what you need. Write it down, put it in your wallet or purse. When “the time comes”, or is getting close, go get those things on the list! If you can’t get everything on the list locally, get it/them NOW. The world won’t wait for Amazon.
I was staying in Studio City, CA during the Northridge quake in the mid-90’s. No electricity so no gas, only 10 people at a time in grocery stores, cell towers damaged so no cell phones. Not sure about land lines.
After the Northridge quake the land lines still worked but all I could get for three days was a busy signal. No power south of Beulton. In LA the 9-1-1 operators were getting panicked calls about strange lights in the sky. People had never seen stars before!
I used to think a bank crisis was nuts but when I’ve heard about massive derivatives held by major banks, I have decided that is a real possibility.
The banks are changing their policies so that in a crisis, they can just keep your money. The small local bank we have here requires business accounts to keep $1,500 as a minimum deposit. I read about a man in Italy whose accounts were seized by the banks. He was elderly and had worked hard his whole life and his life savings were stolen from him. He committed suicide.